Despite slumping sovereignty Bloc remains a force in Quebec

By Marianne White
Canwest News Service

Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe arrives to speak to supporters at his election night headquarters in Montreal. (Mathieu Belanger/Reuters)

QUEBEC - Quebecers were back to square one after Tuesday's election with almost the exact same representation in Ottawa, but analysts say the new Conservative minority government is going to face uncertainty in the province.     

Antonia Maioni, who heads the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada, believes Harper comes out of the election weaker in Quebec even if his party managed to prevent the debacle pollsters predicted.

"Harper has lost a lot of credibility on Quebec in the eyes of his party and in the eyes of Canadians and it's going to be very hard in that situation, with the Bloc bringing back so many members to Ottawa, for the government to function very effectively," Maioni said.

 Almost written-off in the early days of the campaign, the Bloc Quebecois won a solid majority of seats in the province Tuesday night, followed by surprising gains by the Liberals and the Conservatives holding on to their seats.

Early Wednesday, the Bloc was leading or elected in 48 of the province's 75 ridings. The Liberals were second with 15 ridings, the Conservatives lost one seat and finished with 10 ridings while the NDP was holding on to its one seat and there was one independent. Heading into the election, the Bloc held 48 seats in the House of Commons, the Conservatives and the Liberals each held 11, there was one New Democrat, two independent MPs and two seats were vacant.

Observers and political opponents thought the Bloc would have a hard time holding on to its seats in Quebec with support for sovereignty at one of its lowest levels in years, but Guay said the party managed to convince voters of its relevance.

"Considering how the campaign started, the Bloc was able to weather the storm," said Sherbrooke University political scientist Jean-Herman Guay.

 Analysts think the election's result might complicate dealings with Quebec.

But Alain G. Gagnon, the Canada research chair in Quebec and Canadian studies at the University of Quebec in Montreal, thinks the Conservatives might be able to push forward their decentralization agenda with the support of a strong autonomist Bloc.

"A type of tacit alliance between the Conservative forces from the West and the more leftist forces in Quebec, who both share interests in decentralization policies but for totally different reasons, might be able to help the Conservatives govern," Gagnon said.     

The Tories' hopes for gains in Quebec went awry thanks to their controversial cuts in arts funding and a plan to create stiffer sentences for youth found guilty of violent crime. Those issues appear to have led many Quebecers to believe Stephen Harper's party was out of touch with their values.

 The Tories, who entered the campaign with 11 seats had hoped to double that total.

"The Tories managed to do well and saved face," Guay said.

The Liberals made gains in leader Stephane Dion's home province. The gains came in the Montreal area, a Liberals stronghold. Star candidates Marc Garneau, former astronaut and Justin Trudeau, the former prime minister's son, were elected.

For a leader who was seen as headed straight for the slaughterhouse at the beginning of the campaign, Dion has managed to stop the bleeding, said Guay.

The NDP, who had hoped for a Quebec breakthrough, appeared to re-elect Thomas Mulcair, a former provincial cabinet minister elected in a by-election last year.