Mostly consensus on the final polls - the Tories ranging between 33 and 35, the Grits 25-29, the NDP 18-22.  No matter how you add it up, it doesn't look like a Tory majority.  It will all come down to how the votes split in Ontario.  The "ballot box bonus" the Grits picked up in the last two elections, mainly in the 905, will be the biggest wildcard.  It gave Martin a win in '04, and shrunk Harper's majority in '06. 

Assuming that you're interested in politics (I assume you are, or why else would you be reading this), I'll be on Global National's election coverage on Tuesday night.  I'll be reviewing the results of our exit poll with Eric Sorenson, but also will be live blogging on Global National's website.  Please join me if you can. 

Posted by: Darrell Bricker

Lots of action on the blog regarding the economy.  Hope this helps:

1. Harper and the Tories get the best performance scores on every economic performance question we ask;

2. Canadians don't feel the economy is doing badly at the moment.  All of their concerns are about the future.  We're now getting among the worst scores we've ever had on "economy will worsen over the next year";

3. The majority of Canadians think the US financial crisis will hit Canada hard, and that our financial insititutions are at risk. 

Bottom line, these are scary, scary times. Harper needs to walk a fine line between scaring Canadians, and reassuring them.  So far, he hasn't been able to find the necessary middle ground.  And, Canadians don't trust him enough to just take his word for it.   

Posted by: Darrell Bricker

It looks like Harper is slipping in the tracking polls.  While there's some confusion as to what's happening to the other parties, there's no denying that the Tory vote is under pressure.  What's going on?  After all, Harper and the Tories are way ahead on "best able to manage in an economic crisis".  The logical conclusion is that the Tories should be rising, not falling.

Here's the problem.  In the midst of relentless news to the contrary, Harper appears to be whistling past the graveyard.  Granted, he doesn't want the public to panic, but he needed to at least admit much sooner that there's a serious problem.  Otherwise the person who is supposed to be the best manager looks to be the least prepared.  Again, it's about comparing performance to expectations.  That's where Harper is failing.

Posted by: Darrell Bricker