Dion scarier than Harper, Canadians decide

By Mike Blanchfield
Canwest News Service

A Liberal supporter looks down as election returns come in at Liberal leader Stephane Dion's election night headquarters in Montreal. (Shaun Best/Reuters)

OTTAWA - Stephen Harper is not so scary anymore.     

 But Canadian voters - faced with the sudden emergence of a global economic meltdown in the middle of the election campaign - clearly decided Tuesday that Liberal Leader Stephane Dion probably was.     

Many Liberals will be thinking that, too, and that means at least another year of leadership soul-searching as Dion's stint at the head of his party is now effectively over. At best, he will last no longer than the spring, when the party convenes a leadership review.     

"There's no other way to look at it," said former Liberal MP John English, a Lester Pearson biographer and political scientist. "It's a bad day."     

But for the country and its new two-term Conservative prime minister, the way forward appears smooth in the months ahead.     

Harper will be able to govern comfortably as the Liberals turn inward, perhaps for as much as the next year, to figure out who will lead their party. The overall result - not to mention the re-election of Dion's main leadership rivals, Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae - signals the imminent start of a new Liberal leadership campaign.     

That will leave the NDP in the seat of the unofficial opposition for at least the next six months of Canada's new minority parliament.     

English said it would be at least 18 months, if not two years, before Canadians go back to the polls. In the interim, "We will have a Conservative government that will govern as the previous one did: as a majority."     

As the Liberals are sorting out their party leadership, the NDP will be given the opportunity to shine as the Tories' only "real opposition" in Parliament, said Lorne Nystrom, a former New Democrat MP.     

Harper's guiding hand on the economic levers of the country was clearly preferred over Dion's Green Shift carbon tax, which the Conservatives managed to paint as a tax grab and a risk not worth taking.     

"In the last two elections, the Liberals were able to scare people about Harper," said John Reynolds, a former Conservative MP and campaign co-chair for his party's 2006 election win.     

That gave the Liberals a minority in 2004, and managed to convince voters to hold the Conservatives to a thin minority in 2006.     

"It backfired this time for the Liberals," said Reynolds. "I think they (voters) got scared of Dion."     

Added Conservative strategist Goldy Hyder: "In uncertain times, you don't take any risks. Canadians decided not to take any risks. They stuck with who they know. But at the same time, they said you have to function in a minority to make this work."     

Along with Harper, the other big winner Tuesday night was NDP Leader Jack Layton. He may not have made the big seat gains he was hoping for - he didn't come close to knocking the Liberals out of second place - but with the Grits now destined for a new period of leadership flux, the NDP profile will rise.      Layton's job is also safe, even though he raised hopes that he could bleed more left-of-centre votes away from the Liberals.     

"The expectations were kept pretty much under wraps," said Michael Cassidy, a former Ontario NDP leader and longtime provincial politician and federal MP.     

"This is a real comeback for the NDP."     

But in a campaign that started out being a referendum on leadership, Harper was the clear winner.     

"It's very good for the country," said Reynolds.     

"I think he's solid as he can be."