Arts cuts, lack of action on economy derailed Tory majority hopes

By David Akin
Canwest News Service

Jean-Christophe Surette, Dave Loisier and Frederic Melanson protest cuts to arts and culture outside a Conservative rally in Moncton during the election campaign. (David Smith/Canwest News Service)

OTTAWA - Stephen Harper lost his chance at a majority government on Aug. 8, a month before the election was called, when Canwest News Service first reported the Conservatives were about to trim funding to government programs that helped Canadian artists and cultural workers.     

A senior government official, speaking then on condition of anonymity, said the cuts had been approved because grant recipients included "a general radical," "a left-wing . . . think-tank," and a rock band that used an expletive in its name.     

On the morning the story was published, the communication directors for each minister dialed in for their daily 7 a.m. conference call.

Canwest News Service has learned some on that call, annoyed about the leak, demanded to know who had authorized it.     

"I told (the source) to leak it," said Guy Giorno, the prime minister's chief of staff, who had, until then, never participated in the morning communications conference calls. "I authorized it and it was the right thing to do."     

By the end of the campaign, senior Conservative strategists were grumbling about Giorno's decision.     

The $45-million arts cuts, small as they might be compared to overall government support of the arts, became a symbol for what Harper's critics called that party's small-mindedness and political pettiness.     

In Quebec, Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe used the cuts as an effective wedge issue to re-inflate what had been sagging support for the separatist cause. Most of that re-ignited support came at the expense of the Conservatives.     

"The majority fell short because his Quebec strategy didn't pay off," said Darrell Bricker, chief executive officer of pollster Ipsos Reid. "He (Harper) was looking to double his seats in Quebec."     

Bricker said Conservative support in Quebec faltered because of the arts cuts but also because Stephane Dion had a better campaign than many expected and the Liberal leader was able to energize the federalist vote for the Grits.     

During the campaign, Harper vowed to tighten restrictions for young offenders, changing the rules so it would become possible to jail a young offender for life. Again, Duceppe exploited this campaign pledge to attack a Conservative agenda he said was out of touch with Quebecers' values.     

"It made the radical right-wing agenda argument look possible," Bricker said. "(The Conservatives) are a party that still has a tin ear in Quebec."     

And while the Tories were not battered in that province, as some had feared; the Conservatives did not add to their base, as they had planned.     

Still, the party made enough gains in Ontario and other provinces to boost the number of Tories in the Commons to build a stronger minority - just a handful of seats away from a majority.     

But for most Conservatives, a victory is still a victory and that means it is unlikely there will be any challenge to Harper's leadership when Conservatives meet for a party convention in Winnipeg next month.

Harper, advisers and friends say, genuinely enjoys being prime minister and is speaking the truth when he says, as he did several times during the campaign, that he is happy to have any mandate. He is still relatively young - if this Parliament runs to its next fixed election date in four years, he will be 53-years-old - and he can be expected to lead his party into one more election.     

But even though he may be the leader, Harper is likely to make some changes among his key advisers.     

National campaign manager Doug Finley has run two elections for Harper and the results were nearly identical in both - a Conservative minority government. Within the Prime Minister's Office, deputy chief of staff Patrick Muttart has provided much of the political strategy and, while a win is a win, the party may begin to wonder if they are the right men to lead the Conservatives to a majority.     

The Tories, for example, may have seen their last election with a weak and disorganized Liberal opposition and a future campaign strategy may have to contend with a new Liberal leader and a restructured party.     

In Ontario, the other province where the Conservatives had hoped to make the big gains that would lead to a majority, the wheels began to fall off in mid-campaign, about the same time stock markets were crashing.     

The Conservatives had set up their pitch to Ontario voters to make it about Harper's leadership but Ontarians saw a different ballot question.     

"The Conservatives tried to humanize Stephen Harper and people weren't interested in that. They wanted to know what, if anything, are you going to do?" said Peter Woolstencroft, an associate professor of political science at the University of Waterloo.     

Harper criticized his opponents for "panicking" in reaction to the fiscal crisis but it became clear many voters were looking for someone who was ready to do something - anything - about their heightened anxiety over their economic future.     

"Harper was saying trust me," Woolstencroft said. "But he doesn't yet have enough trust."