The apathetic voter is Harper's best friend right now

By Don Martin
Canwest News Service

An Elections Canada worker watches as Prime Minister Stephen Harper places his vote in the ballot box in Calgary, Alberta, Oct. 14. Canada typically has a two-thirds voter turnout rate. (Andy Clark/Reuters)

The tours have gone to ground, the last of the staged-for-television rallies held, the incessant chatter of e-mail traffic from the war rooms has virtually (and thankfully) ceased while the thunder sticks have been packed away for the next campaign.     

Photo-ops of the leaders in home ridings, their hands poised with a marked ballot at the slit of the box while beaming a forced bravado, will be Tuesday's only events.     

Then comes the long wait until an envelope is handed to them containing a victory or concession speech for the podium.     

But it's apathy, not the smears or jeers of rival leaders, that becomes their greatest threat now, particularly for those aiming to knock off the incumbent prime minister.     

In a close election where the prevailing judgment by the public is one of disgust at 36 days of sucker punches and cheap shots, the most important voters may well be the ones who opt for none-of-the-above and stay home.     

Canada is now routinely recording only two-thirds voter turnout and, if disinterest manifests itself as a no-show epidemic Tuesday, this election could dip below 60 per cent for the first time in history.

Beyond serving as the ultimate snub to democracy, apathy is doubly costly because a vote for any party gives them much-needed taxpayer funding of $1.95 a year to finance the next campaign which, if the expected minority government is re-elected, might be only a year or two off, perish the thought.     

But a lethargic electorate is the Conservatives' best friend. Their get-out-the-vote ground game is without equal. I doubt there's a supporter in a key riding anywhere in Canada who hasn't been helpfully directed to their polling station by a Conservative volunteer and offered a ride if required.     

The only chance for the Liberals, who seem perilously thin on the ground in important regions, is to hope that a vote against Prime Minister Stephen Harper is a motivated vote, particularly if the rumble of a last-minute surge in Conservative support points to a stronger minority mandate or even, if every break in Ontario squeakers went their way, seizing the holy grail of majority rule.     

The iffy voter turnout was a key consideration when I surveyed my collection of ten cross-country anonymous operatives Monday. It can trigger swing variables in dozens of ridings, yet while this insightful group derives from a variety of party allegiances, they all agree this $300-million exercise will likely just buy several more years of the same old same old.

They all expect Conservatives minorities ranging from 115 to 145 seats in a 308-seat House of Commons. That means another four-way-divided Parliament requiring the government to find a partner to do anything, where committees remain gridlocked by partisan bickering and election speculation never ends. If there was ever a compelling reason to vote in a Conservative majority, that's it.

The allegedly non-partisan Election Prediction Project, which drills into polls to decipher local riding entrails, says the vote is finally locking in and pegs the number of too-close-to-calls contests at less than 25 ridings.

It now calls for a status quo Conservative minority of 125 seats (versus 127 at the writ drop) and incremental Liberal setback of 94 seats (down from 95).

That will still mean the unsheathing of Liberal knives aimed at Leader Stephane Dion's back and would place Stephen Harper on probation after three shots at failing to win over Quebec to land a majority.

Given that Harper was up against the weakest Liberal leader in generations and had the sovereigntists on their knees in Quebec, all the while outpolling all others with a commanding leadership advantage on economic management, even a similar win would be widely seen as a personal loss.     

That said, I'll foolishly advance a prediction, having bet several dinners on 138 seats for the Conservatives, 88 for the Liberals, 54 for the Bloc Quebecois and 27 for the New Democrats and one independent MP with a dramatic rise in the Green party's votes that, darnit, is spread too thin to give Elizabeth May any seats to call her own.     

Then again, the smart money would bet I'm wrong.