No clear winner in French-language debate

By Don Martin
Canwest News Service

The leaders of Canada's major political parties pose before the French leaders' debate in Ottawa, October 1, where no one leader landed a knockout punch. (Chris Wattie/Reuters)

For a few minutes, it was the most awkward fan club in Canadian political history.

The five French language debate participants Wednesday were forced to gush about the leader to their left in a tense roundtable as they squared off in the battle for Quebec.

It was a rare moment of levity as they struggled to articulate something positive while wrapping their reluctant compliments around their own record of achievement.

But debates are not about mutual admiration. They are about stealing support at the expense of the other guy (or gal) by any possible means.     

That set up two parallel showdowns. The fight to carry the province boiled down to Prime Minister Stephen Harper versus Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe. There is really no realistic third option to claim a majority of the 75 seats.     

The other three leaders were finger-wrestling for the leftovers, concentrated on the island of Montreal.     

The narrow target audience always complicates picking the clear winner in a French-language leaders debate. An anglophone columnist with Alberta roots trying to decipher the impact of leaders fighting for the hearts of Quebec francophones with sovereigntist leanings is, at best, instinctive.     

So at the risk of playing it too safe, let me fearlessly declare there was no runaway winner or obvious loser.     

The roundtable format worked well and there was enough adult supervision from the moderator to prevent the unprecedented handful of participants from drowning each other out.     

With so many Quebec voters in political limbo, dangling enough swayable seats to crown a powerful king as majority prime minister or keep Parliament squabbling as a minority government, Harper's performance was arguably the most important of his political career.    

Harper kept his cool 

It was a calm and surprisingly laid back delivery, and at times he seemed bemused by the group gang-up that was trying to goad him into losing his temper. To his credit, he kept his cool and did nothing to alarm the electorate over a hidden agenda or dangerous economic or environmental policy.

Going in, his challenge was to calm the hue and cry over arts funding cuts and explain why adult sentences for 14-year-old kids are justifiable justice, both particularly tough sells in Quebec. While he didn't inflame the debate, neither did he extinguish it.     

But in a grander sense, Harper had to convince the sovereigntist fence-sitters that a powerful government mandate will better represent their unique interests than a Bloc party that has lost its raison d'etre under a leader clearly in pre-retirement mode.

To that end, and assuming these debates actually change voter behaviour, he may have fallen short in swaying the block of Bloc seats he'll need to land a majority in Quebec seats.

That's because that old master of these debates, the Bloc's Gilles Duceppe, adequately defended his party's right to exist in a federal state long after his party was supposed to fold its tent and retreat to a semi-sovereigntist state.

 It's arguably the first French debate in Canadian history where the once-invincible Liberals were marginalized to the Quebec sidelines, the goal of Leader Stephane Dion having been reduced to a scramble for survival in his party's trembling 11-seat Montreal island.

In that context and as a rehearsal for his critical performance tonight, Dion was underwhelming at times, a faded force of personality dwarfed by the testy exchanges surrounding him.

If he's smart he'll stop waiting to be recognized with his hand in the air tonight and dive into the debate. His segment on the environment, where he should've shone as the only leader campaigning on a carbon tax, was strangely weak, although he redeemed himself somewhat with an forceful assault on Harper's partisan behaviour and a more spirited finale on the Afghanistan question.

It was also the first time when the New Democrats had a single seat to protect in Quebec and perhaps a couple to gain. Leader Jack Layton delivered a solid attack on the Harper record, advancing an agenda that will put him in ideal position to challenge the Liberals for more seats in Montreal area if that party is reduced to a smouldering car wreck on election day.     

And, of course, Green Leader Elizabeth May delivered the most fearless and feisty display of debate aggression, betraying no nervousness or hesitation in challenging the dark suits with a particularly strong slam on the Conservative's environmental record.