Grudge matches and bellwethers in the 2008 election

By David Akin
Canwest News Service

Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer and his volunteers wave at passing cars in the riding of Edmonton-Strathcona. His riding is one of many where some of the more exciting battles of this election will be fought. (Jimmy Jeong/Edmonton Journal)

OTTAWA - As he campaigns in ridings around the country, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has never mentioned local opposition candidates by name - except once.     

At a stop in Oakville, Ont., Harper had some special words for the local Liberal candidate.     

"I should have told the media that when I called this general election, I did it to give Garth Turner that byelection he promised,"  Harper said to the cheers of his supporters.     

Turner had been elected in 2006 as a Conservative but ended up annoying his caucus so much that it threw him out. After sitting for a spell as an independent, Turner joined the Liberals and now seeks re-election under that banner. As a Liberal, Turner has been a relentless critic of Harper and the Conservatives, mostly through daily posts on his popular blog but also in the House of Commons and in town hall meetings in his riding and around the country. As a result, Conservatives find him as annoying as they ever did.     

So, in the riding of Halton at least, the race is one of the country's best grudge matches, pitting Turner against all Conservative comers.     

But there are plenty of fights like that in this 40th general election.

And for those who are tiring of the same old speeches from the party leaders, Canwest News Service spotlights 20 races where the local flavour gives politics some extra spice. These races feature grudge matches, high profile candidates, or could be trendsetters on election night.

The Grudge Matches     

Halton, Ont.: Garth Turner has been a thorn in the Tory side since he was tossed from their caucus. Local Tories were annoyed that head office appointed a candidate - Lisa Raitt - to face off against Turner. But Conservatives will cheer loud and long if they can oust Turner on Oct. 14.

Whitby-Oshawa, Ont.: Finance Minister Jim Flaherty should win here, but his Liberal opponent is Brent Fullard, a key organizer of investors who were furious over Flaherty's decision to tax income trusts. Fullard is carrying the grudge of all Canadians who felt burned by the Tory flip-flop on income trusts.     

Avalon, N.L.: Politics here could hardly be more personal. Conservative incumbent Fabian Manning was, at the time of his election in 2006, famous for being one of the few island politicians to stand up to Premier Danny Williams and live to tell the tale. Manning, who was part of Williams's caucus in the provincial legislature refused to toe the party line once and earned Williams's wrath. Now Williams, of course, is heading up the Anybody But Conservative campaign in that province and Manning, the only Conservative incumbent in that province, is in Williams's crosshairs.

Edmonton-Strathcona, Alta.: Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer had a tough fight in 2006 to beat NDP candidate Linda Duncan. Duncan is back for round 2 in a riding where the NDP holds the provincial seat. Everything else in Alberta will be Tory blue but the Jaffer-Duncan re-match merits close watching.     

Churchill, Man.: Liberal Tina Keeper won this in 2006 partly because the NDP vote was split between NDP candidate Nikki Ashton and Bev Desjarlais, the incumbent MP who had been kicked out of the NDP caucus and was running as an independent. Ashton's back for a rematch with Keeper and there's no independent on the left.     

West Nova, N.S.: Liberal Robert Thibault beat Tory Greg Kerr by a little more than 500 votes in 2006. Then, this summer, Thibault added insult to injury suggesting Kerr was too old to run against him again. Kerr and the Tory war room hope to make Thibault eat his words.

The Trend Setters     

Richmond, B.C.: The Tories are gunning for Liberal MP Raymond Chan. This is one of three ridings the Liberals won in 2006 that the Tories think they can steal. They also hope for Vancouver Quadra and West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea-to-Sky. If Chan falls, Liberal incumbent Don Bell could also be threatened in North Vancouver.     

Nunavut, Nunavut: For the first time, voters in Nunavut get to choose from an all-Inuit slate. Liberal Nancy Karetek-Lindell is retiring and though the Conservatives haven't won anything in the north since Erik Nielsen held the Yukon back in the 1980s, they think their candidate Leona Aglukkaq, a former health minister in the territorial government, might be their breakthrough. Harper has already campaigned in Iqaluit with Alukkaq.

Ottawa West-Nepean, Ont.: This riding and the Ontario riding of Peterborough are bellwethers in that they always seem to elect MPs on the government side of the House. In 2006, voters in Ottawa-West Nepean picked John Baird, who became environment minister. The Liberals are running David Pratt, a former defence minister, against Baird. Pratt was ousted in 2004 next door in Nepean-Carleton by Pierre Poilievre. Keep an eye, as well, on Ottawa-South, the riding held by David McGuinty, the brother of the Ontario premier. He should win, but some Conservatives think he is vulnerable.     

Oshawa, Ont.: The country's autoworkers are angry and here, in the riding that is home to General Motors and Canada's largest auto assembly plant, union leader Mike Shields is running for the NDP, challenging Conservative incumbent Colin Carrie. In the last year, more than 70,000 manufacturing jobs have been lost in Canada, many in the auto sector that powers Ontario's economy. In this riding and in others in southwestern Ontario like Essex, Chatham-Kent-Essex, Elgin-Middlesex-London, and Sarnia-Lambton, laid-off workers could take their anger out on Conservative incumbents.     

Parkdale-High Park, Ont.: This downtown Toronto riding could be a symbol of the Liberal-NDP battle. NDP MP Peggy Nash stole it from a Liberal incumbent in 2006. Now the Liberals want it back and failed leadership candidate and convention kingmaker Gerard Kennedy is the candidate. Nash is putting up a tough defence, though, making this race too close to call.     

Trois-Rivieres, Que.: If Parkdale-High Park highlights the NDP-Liberal battle, Trois-Rivieres is a good proxy for the Conservative-Bloc Quebecois  contest. BQ incumbent Paule Brunelle faces Conservative Claude Duran, who has a high-profile locally. If the Tories can win steal the Trois-Rivieres of the world, the BQ MPs in ridings like Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Richmond-Arthabaska, Drummond, and elsewhere ought to be worried.     

Outremont, Que.: Can Thomas Mulcair hold the NDP foothold in Quebec? Mulcair won what had been viewed as Liberal stronghold in Montreal in a byelection. General elections, though, are a different kettle of fish. Mulcair benefited from the collapse of the separatist vote here and there is no sign that BQ support has revived. A Liberal defeat here will deeply hurt the Quebec wing of the party.

The Star Turns     

Central Nova, N.S.: Defence Minister Peter MacKay is the favourite but his challenger is Green Leader Elizabeth May. The Liberals agreed not to run a candidate here to give May her best shot. May either wins the upset of the evening on Oct. 14 or becomes 0-for-2 when her name is on the ballot.     

Papineau, Que.: Justin Trudeau fought for and won the right to carry the Liberal banner in a riding that is by no means a safe seat. The oldest son of the former prime minister hopes his heritage helps him beat Bloc Quebecois MP Vivien Barbot. Barbot knocked off then-foreign affairs minister Pierre Pettigrew for this Montreal seat in 2006.     

Surrey North, B.C.: The ghost of Chuck Cadman haunted the last Parliament with Liberal accusations that the Tories offered him a bribe to run for them. Cadman's widow Dona is now running for the Conservatives here. It's a wide-open race with the retirement of NDP MP Penny Priddy. The Tories hope Cadman gets elected, although Liberals accuse the Tories of muzzling the candidate. Cadman says she has no interest in talking to the national media.     

Wascana, Sask.: Former finance minister Ralph Goodale holds down the only Liberal riding between Winnipeg and Vancouver's eastern suburbs. The Conservatives would dearly like to make it Tory Blue right across the Prairies but Goodale is no pushover. Meanwhile, the NDP are gunning for some Conservative-held ridings including Palliser, Regina-Qu-Appelle, and Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar     

Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, Sask.: Winning this riding might give Stephane Dion a few headaches down the road. His candidate is David Orchard, who once tried to beat Peter MacKay to lead the Progressive Conservatives. The most northern of Saskatchewan's ridings is now held by Conservative Rob Clarke who won a squeaker in a byelection. The Liberals won it in the 2006 general election by a hair over the Tories. And in 2004, the Tories won by a nose. Expect another nail-biter.     

Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Que.: Michael Fortier quit the Senate to carry the Tory banner in this west end Montreal riding against BQ incumbent Melli Faille. This is widely seen as the best chance the Conservatives have in Montreal.     

Westmount-Ville Marie, Que.: The NDP are running a popular radio show host - Anne Lagace Dawson - against Liberal Marc Garneau, the former astronaut. It's a riding that should be about as safe as it gets for Liberals in Quebec, but the NDP think Jack Layton is connecting with Quebecers.