Pollster cautions NDP surge in Quebec could soon deflate

By Andy Riga
Canwest News Service

NDp Quebec lietenant and Outremont incumbent Thomas Mulcair says the party's target is six to 12 of Quebec's 75 ridings. (Chris Wattie/Reuters)

MONTREAL -Once dismissed as a non-entity in Quebec, the New Democrats have their best chance yet to break through in the province in the Oct. 14 federal election.

But though polls indicate left-wing Quebecers are flirting with the New Democrats, current support may evaporate come voting day or it may not be enough to win seats, experts say.

The party's target is six to 12 of Quebec's 75 ridings, said Outremont incumbent Thomas Mulcair, the NDP's Quebec lieutenant.

"We're looking at growing a lot in Quebec," said Mulcair, who pointed to developments in the Jeanne-Le Ber riding as evidence the Bloc Quebecois is "very nervous" about the NDP.

In that Montreal riding, the Bloc this week has put up posters urging voters to back the Bloc because a vote for the NDP will split the left-wing vote and help the Conservatives win a majority.

"It's a good day for you in politics when your adversary puts up a sign that talks about you," Mulcair said.

The NDP is counting on well-known candidates, including CBC broadcaster Anne Lagace Dowson in Westmount-Ville Marie, environmentalist Daniel Breton in Jeanne-Le Ber, and Francoise Boivin, a former Liberal MP now running for the New Democrats in Gatineau, Mulcair said.

The party is also hoping to come up the middle in several other ridings, including some on the South Shore, the Eastern Townships and the Gatineau area, where the vote will be split among three or four parties.

But the NDP, whose Quebec support in summer polls soared to 16 per cent, is now below 10 per cent, according to a survey to be published Thursday by Leger Marketing. 

In the 2006 election, the NDP got 7.5 per cent of the vote in Quebec.

"It's true that they're stronger than last time, but it will be very difficult for the NDP to win seats here," pollster Jean-Marc Leger said. "It's always the same problem with the NDP: the closer you get to the vote, the more their support drops." he said.

The NDP may do well in two or three Montreal-area ridings, including Westmount-Ville Marie and Outremont, he said. But it "will be a great victory" if the party holds on to Outremont, a riding it won in a byelection.

Their only hope is in the fact that "the vote is totally divided" in many ridings, Leger added.

Leger said many Quebecers are undecided, waiting for the debates before choosing a party. And some NDP support in Quebec may slip away if Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives seem close to forming a majority, with anglophones heading back to the Liberals, francophones to the Bloc, he said.

The NDP has never won a seat in Quebec in a federal general election.