Debate decision puts Green party on a roll

By Barbara Yaffe
Canwest News Service

Calgary West Green Party candidate Randy Weeks rides his recumbent bike, which he is using to deliver signs and literature on the first day of the federal election. (Ted Rhodes/Calgary Herald)

VANCOUVER - Could this election mark a breakthrough for Canada's 25-year-old Green party?

While other partisan forces are campaigning to become the government, or augment their opposition clout in the Commons, the Greens are keen to elect their first-ever MP somewhere - anywhere - in Canada.

Party support has soared in the past week, in part due to the recent high profile fuss over leader Elizabeth May's inclusion in televised debates scheduled for Oct. 1 and 2. After opposing her participation, Stephen Harper and Jack Layton capitulated but the donnybrook resulted in a huge amount of media play for the Greens.

Ironically, if the Greens do well in the Oct. 14 vote, that could greatly assist the Conservatives by splintering the vote on the left.

In the 2006 election, the Greens were not major players, receiving just 4.5-per-cent support. Their strongest showing, perhaps surprisingly, was in Alberta, with 6.5 per cent.

Nunavut, with 5.9-per-cent support, was second. B.C. was third with 5.3 per cent.

The party got its first MP only weeks ago when discredited former B.C. Liberal Blair Wilson opted to become Green.

But it's widely believed his chances of recapturing the traditionally Conservative riding of West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast are modest.

The Greens' best opportunity should be in Central Nova, a rural Nova Scotia riding the party leader chose for herself last year.

The choice has dismayed political observers because few believe May can unseat Peter MacKay, a prominent cabinet minister whose political family has claimed the area for decades.

Other ridings the Greens are targeting include North Vancouver and Saanich-Gulf Islands in B.C., and Guelph and Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound in Ontario.

Their fundamental problem of course is that their support is sparsely distributed across the country.

Newcomer parties, such as Reform and the Bloc Quebecois, have tended to do well in Canada in recent decades. But that's because they played to regional grievances.

Greens do not naturally have a concentrated mass of backers in any part of Canada.

They call themselves a party of the future, catering neither to left nor right but rather to those who "believe in sound fiscal management, and strengthening our economy while ensuring that it is sustainable."

In the current campaign, they've had the good fortune to find themselves in a starring role due to the leaders' debate fracas.

An Angus Reid poll taken as that controversy was playing out put the Greens ahead of the Bloc Quebecois, with 10 per cent support nationally compared to the Quebec party's nine per cent.

In B.C., Green support was 26 per cent, slightly ahead of New Democrats, who elected 11 B.C. MPs in the last election, and well ahead of Liberals, who elected seven.

According to the poll, another region where Greens appear strong is the Prairies where they toted up 14 per cent support. In Ontario, they're at 12 per cent - a whisker behind the NDP.

Greens have an advantage in this election because voters are consistently identifying the environment as one of their top three issues.

Another advantage is that they have a leader Canadians are relating well to - a personable, warm, outgoing, plain-talking woman from Cape Breton.

Elizabeth May's approval rating last week, at 25 per cent, beat out that of Liberal Leader Stephane Dion.

The Greens hope May's folksy and endearing manner will make a strong impression during the leaders' debates. She's everything Harper isn't - approachable, informal, motherly - and could deal the formal-sounding, occasionally stiff PM a serious wound on the human side.

The party argue on its website that it's the only party to put principle above power. "We agree with Canadians who say it's time for parties in Parliament to stop bickering and get on with the job of combating climate change ... "

Vancouver Quadra candidate Dan Grice says he's personally convinced that May's participation in the debates will mark a real turning point for his party: "We fully expect (her participation) to resonate deeply with Canadian voters, resulting in several Green MPs being elected next month."