Tories could cash in on plummeting sovereignty in Quebec

By Marianne White
Canwest News Service

A string of recent polls suggest the Bloc Quebecois and the Conservatives are almost neck and neck throughout Quebec at some 30 per cent voters support each. (Christine ***/Reuters)

QUEBEC - After years of being a deciding factor in how Quebecers vote, the push for sovereignty won't top the electoral agenda this time around.

With support for the separatist option flagging at its lowest levels in years - at around 38 per cent - analysts say the focus is clearly shifting away from constitutional angst in the province.

"People are tired of hearing the same old record," said Sherbrooke University political scientist Jean-Herman Guay. A string of recent polls suggest the Bloc Quebecois and the Conservatives are almost neck and neck throughout Quebec at some 30 per cent voters support each. The Liberals are trailing behind
and the NDP is bringing up the rear.

"The separatist movement is facing a major crisis and the election is going to be a decisive one for the option," Guay added.

He said sovereignty has lost importance in the past two federal elections and, this year it will only play a ghost role. This should be good news for the Liberals who have long been the federalist alternative in the province, but the party seems ill-prepared for the election. Star candidates are rare and many candidacies still need to be announced. Not to mention that Liberal Leader Stephane Dion's leadership is harshly criticized in Quebec.

For political science professor Rejean Pelletier, the big winner is going to be the party that will convince Quebecers that it is "the" federalist alternative.

"The Liberals are in a weak position, the NDP isn't that appealing to Quebecers, so the Conservatives seem to be in a lead position for now," noted Pelletier, who teaches at Laval University in Quebec City. 

Guay also thinks the Tories have good chances of winning serious support in the key battleground of Quebec if they can convince soft nationalists that the open federalism is actually working. 

The trend emerged in the last federal election when the Conservatives surprised even themselves by winning 11 seats in Quebec when they started out with none. "Stephen Harper's winning hand lies in the fact that sovereignty is not a threat anymore. And during his fist mandate he was able to reestablish, to some extent, national unity in Quebec," he said. 

The massive protest vote that drove Quebecers to the Bloc in the past - resentment over the failure of the Meech Lake Accord in the 1990s and the sponsorship scandal in the past two elections - is absent this time, noted Guay.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Stephen Harper recognized Quebec as forming nation, gave the province its own voice at UNESCO and settled the so-called fiscal imbalance, he said. "He found a way to give Quebecers just enough to content them and drive the sovereignty movement to a fallback position," Guay said.

The new political order is forcing the separatists to do some soul-searching. The Bloc made it clear from Day 1 of the campaign they are going to break away from the usual federalist vs. separatist rhetoric. Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe has barely mentioned the word sovereignty since he got on the campaign trail. He denied trying to shrug off the issue, but he acknowledged that it will not be a key selling point for this election. 

"I'm not trying to hide the fact that I'm (a) sovereigntist," he said week. "But sovereignty will be decided by a referendum in Quebec, not an election in Ottawa," he said. 

When Lucien Bouchard left the Conservatives in 1990 to form the Bloc Quebecois, he was followed by disaffected separatist federal MPs. Soon enough, the full-blown party attracted a variety of former Liberals and Conservatives with a clear goal: making Quebec independent within four years. Almost two decades later, the goal has not been reached and it seems farther than ever before.

"The Bloc has to prove that it is still relevant and the party's new line is that it is the only one that can truly defend Quebecers' interests," said Pelletier.

That new-found attitude isn't pleasing all sovereigntists. On Wednesday a former Parti Quebecois minister accused Duceppe of shelving sovereignty and turning the Bloc into a clone of the New Democratic Party by bringing "old left-wing nags out of the stable". In an open letter published in Quebec newspapers, Jacques Brassard said the Bloc is totally on the wrong track.

Duceppe and other Bloc candidates quickly shot back at Brassard, but this type of quarrel within separatist forces is sure to delight their opponents. The Tories, who have singled out the Bloc as their key enemy in Quebec, are not missing a chance to ridicule the party for failing to achieve its goal 18 years down the road.

Harper hammered the Bloc at his campaign launch in Quebec City last Sunday and this week his minister Michael Fortier slammed the party for making more than 1,000 promises in 18 years. "The Bloc will be judged on its accomplishments - nothing," Fortier said. 

The Tories want to maintain their assets in the province and hope to expand their reach to other ridings in rural Quebec. Conservatives organizers refuse to make predictions on the seats they hope to snatch in Quebec, but pollsters say some 15 ridings in the province have offered tight races in the last election and could decide the outcome.

But both Guay and Pelletier stress that vote is very volatile in Quebec and the spectre of a majority Harper government could quickly dampen the Tory vote. "They are walking a thin line. If some Conservatives push right-wing policies a little bit to much, this could scare off Quebecers and split the vote in favour of the Bloc," Pelletier said.